How do I open a forex demo account? demo forex - Forex ...
Am I doing something wrong?
I was practicing trading forex on a demo account, testing out this MA crossover strategy. I used a 10 SMA and 20 SMA on a 15 minute chart. The rule of thumb is if the 10 SMA crosses above the 20 SMA, buy. If the 10 SMA crosses below the 20 SMA, sell. At first, it worked for a buy trade. The 10 SMA crossed above the 20 SMA. But then it began to reverse, the 10 SMA crossed below the 20 SMA. I sold my previous order and opened a new sell order. Suddenly, instead of going down, the price starts going up and up with long green candles. Yet, the 10 SMA is STILL falling below the 20 SMA while the 20 SMA is going up. What does it mean when this happens? Am I overlooking something? Should I just give it more time to play out?
Is Trading212 a good app/platform for trading forex?
I started out my demo forex account with them a couple weeks ago and I am loving the ease and simplicity of it. However i recently learned it has a bad rep in some places online, despite it having a high rating on the play store. Also it doesn't cost anything to trade on it. The main complaint i was hearing was that they would freeze trading on certain tickers or what have you due to some reason and people assumed it was because they were taking their money... Not exact words but something to that effect. Can anyone weigh in on this?
But the position size calculator tells me that I want to open a position with the 70-pips SL and with the risk exposure of 1.5%, I should specify the 0.21 lot sizing. It's a deal I have recently opened.
I googled and it's said that you should never take your margin to the vicinity of 100%. But it took me 16 lots to take my margin to that level! Thus, the 0.12 lot sizing equals to 1.25% of the 16 lots...
Thus, it looks like I am utilizing only 1.25% of the margin made availlable by the broker, right?
And, ofc, I should be basing my lot sizings based on the desired risk exposure and not based on the available margin because the second scenario is gambling.
So, do I understand this correctly:
a. margin is well... it's for gamblers, uknow, the folks who wouldn't be able to follow the narrative in this post... who treat forex like slots... playing, not trading with a good trading strategy. b. but I can create the deals with super-tight SLs and let them run. Thus, if I already have the deal that is well into the profits zone, i can then just move SL from the original level to BE. And then I can open another deal. If I open the second deal, the cumulative margin utilization would result at 2.5% from the available volume. And thus, if I have 20 such deals running for months, then my margin utilization would be 25%, right? I mean it's not bad and there would be risk of the margin call... I would need to open 80 thus-sized deals to get to the dangerous area. Did I get it right?
Is trading212 a good app/platform for trading forex?
I started my demo account on t212 a couple weeks ago and have been practicing with both stocks and forex, mostly forex (my main interest), and i am loving the ease and simplicity of everything. I came across some bad reviews elsewhere saying to avoid t212 because they suspected they were freezing certain orders to make people lose money or what have you, something to that effect. But it's rated pretty high on the google play store and you guys seem content with it, from what i see here so far. How have you guys been doing with t212 with a live account, as far as forex (and stocks) go?
Hi guys, I've been learning forex for about a year now. Demo traded, went well. Traded with real, went very well, but then Trump's tweets came, the whole acandal where thos big banks were caught manipulating markets and and and well my account went to shit. Luckily not much and money I considered not mine when I put it in the account. With that aside, how does one come up with a strategy? Do you stare at charts, looking for patterns, playing with indicators and backtesting, till you find something that can maybe work? Cause thats what I've been trying and failing at🤣 And I don't even dare to google strategies. No thanks Mr Nigeria prins, I'll keep my liver.😂 Hope this isn't too much of a shitpost. Keep well.
Hello. I am currently just about under a year in trading forex and I found a simple intraday strategy that I thought would work. Its just a simple ma cross and trendline break on the H1 and entry based on m15. The thing that im struggling with is that everytime i backtested my strategy i would have a win rate of 60-70%. About 100-200 entries backtested across different pairs. Proceeded on forward testing for about a week and I would get about the same result. Proceeded with real account with 0.5% risk, very good result still. But when i go on my real account with 1% risk i would hit stop losses at a rate of 90%. Would you guys have any idea why this is happening? Is it my psychology that comes into play or did i not do enough backtesting and demo testing? Its getting frustrating. I would like to just be consistent and not be emotional when I trade. Any input would help guys. Thanks in advance!
Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details. This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.
For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX! I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose. This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem. I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.
I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:
I'm using the stop entry version - so I wait for the price to trade beyond the confirmation candle(in the direction of my trade) before entering. I don't have any data to support this decision, but I've always preferred this method over retracement-limit entries. Maybe I just like the feeling of a higher winrate even though there can be greater R:R using a limit entry. Variety is the spice of life.
I put my stop loss right at the opposite edge of the confirmation candle. NOT at the edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. I'll get into this more below - not enough trades are saved to justify the wider stops. (Wider stop means less $ per pip won, assuming you still only risk 1%).
All my profit/loss statistics are based on a 1% risk per trade. Because 1 is real easy to multiply.
There are definitely some questionable trades in here, but I tried to make it as mechanical as possible for evaluation purposes. They do fit the definitions of the system, which is why I included them. You could probably improve the winrate by being more discretionary about your trades by looking at support/resistance or other techniques.
I didn't use MBB much for either entering trades, or as support/resistance indicators. Again, trying to be pretty mechanical here just for data collection purposes. Plus, we all make bad trading decisions now and then, so let's call it even.
As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames - who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Forex is an unpredictable place.
I collected data to show efficacy of taking profit at three different levels: -61.8%, -100% and -161.8% fib levels described in the system using the passive trade management method(set it and forget it). I'll have more below about moving up stops and taking off portions of a position.
And now for the fun. Results!
Total Trades: 241
TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241: 73.44%
TP at -100%: 156 out of 241: 64.73%
TP at -161.8%: 121 out of 241: 50.20%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 5.22%
TP at -100%: 23.55%
TP at -161.8%: 29.14%
As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker. EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.
A Note on Spread
As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits. Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way). However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades. You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term. Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.
Time of Day
Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either. On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
7pm-4am: Fewer setups, but winrate high.
5am-6am: Lots of setups, but but winrate low.
12pm-3pm Medium number of setups, but winrate low.
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate. That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.
Moving stops up to breakeven
This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers. Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability. One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)? Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 5.36%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): -1.01% (yes, a net loss)
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right? Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 46.4%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 17.97%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 65.97%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 11.60%
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert. I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall. The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.
2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops
Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it. Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL. Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.
As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular. Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system. This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here). Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses. Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels). Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant. One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak. EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
Total Trades: 75
TP at -61.8%: 84.00%
TP at -100%: 73.33%
TP at -161.8%: 60.00%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 53.33%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 53.33% (yes, oddly the exact same winrate. but different trades/profits)
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 18.13%
TP at -100%: 26.20%
TP at -161.8%: 34.01%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 19.20%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 17.29%
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much. I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system. This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions. There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated. I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful. Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.
What I will trade
Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
"System Details" I described above.
TP at -161.8%
Static SL at opposite side of confirmation candle - I won't move stops up to breakeven.
Trade only 7am-11am and 4pm-11pm signals.
Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width.
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!
Other Technical Details
ATR is only slightly elevated in this date range from historical levels, so this should fairly closely represent reality even after the COVID volatility leaves the scalpers sad and alone.
The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn't particularly looking to test a specific pair here - just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread.
Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.) I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.
I'm on the East Coast in the US, so the timestamps are Eastern time.
Time stamp is from the confirmation candle, not the indecision candle. So 7am would mean the indecision candle was 6:00-6:59 and the confirmation candle is 7:00-7:59 and you'd put in your order at 8:00.
I found a couple AM/PM typos as I was reviewing the data, so let me know if a trade doesn't make sense and I'll correct it.
Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes
For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:
Pair - duh
Date/Time - Eastern time, confirmation candle as stated above
Win to -61.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -100%? - whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -161.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -61.8% and -100% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -100% and -161.8% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Trade Width(Pips) - the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the "width" of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc.
Loser saved by 2 candle stop? - for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so. "No" means it didn't save it, N/A means it wasn't a losing trade so it's not relevant.
Spread(ThinkorSwim) - these are typical spreads for these pairs on ToS.
Spread % of Width - How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless.
True Risk(Trade Width + Spread) - I set my SL at the opposite side of the confirmation candle knowing that I'm actually exposing myself to slightly more risk because of the spread(stop order = market order when submitted, so you pay the spread). So this tells you how many pips you are actually risking despite the Trade Width. I prefer this over setting the stop inside from the edge of the candle because some pairs have a wide spread that would mess with the system overall. But also many, many of these trades retraced very nearly to the edge of the confirmation candle, before ending up nicely profitable. If you keep your risk per trade at 1%, you're talking a true risk of, at most, 1.25% (in worst-case scenarios with the spread being 25% of the trade width as I am going with above).
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8% - not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative. Both normalized to the 1% risk you started with.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100% - same as the last, but 100% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -161.8% - same as the last, but 161.8% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%, and move SL to breakeven at 61.8% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then full TP at 100%.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread take off half of position at -61.8%, move SL to breakeven, TP 100% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you took of half the position and moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then TP the remaining half at 100%.
Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk) - pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically(spreadsheet is sorted by date).
Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:
Date range: 6/11-7/3
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
Demo Trading Results
Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc). A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade. I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!
Date range: 7/9-7/30
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 20.73%
Starting Balance: $5,000
Ending Balance: $6,036.51
Live Trading Results
I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
just turned 30 this year been trying nofap since like i was 26. one thing this streak made me realize i wasted 4 fucking years doing shit all besides jerking off, smoking weed and playing games. being high everyday made me not think about what was going on, i was just living for the moment and dopamine release. ive made 0 progress in life. completely lost all my gym gains and have tons of fat on me now, im hella dumber, dick dont work, going bald, social skills aint that great, broke, the list goes on. anyways its only up from here ive lost all attraction to porn, i guess as you get older porn isnt the same anymore. good luck all Edit* couple goals i will accomplish/try to accomplish by jan 2021. I have 3 credits left for my degree so i will finish that up. also Ive been trading forex for 3 years now learned so much from live and demo trading but never been serious so its time to work towards achieving consistent profitability.
How risky/difficult is it to make $50-$60 daily, with $2000 in your account?
I’ve just started forex trading and still playing with demo accounts while trying out multiple analytical techniques but was just wondering how risky/difficult it is to make $50-$60 daily, with $2000 capital in your account? And if it’s too difficult, what’s a more realistic profit rate? Obviously I know you could lose a lot too, which is more likely but just being realistic here with a low risk strategy.
https://preview.redd.it/zp7shgjo5dm51.png?width=2408&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd658da3cf5f10759c9fa56fd022b0176c8413ab After reading a lot about forex and strategies and babypips and playing with demo account etc etc for a month, started trading with real money since June manually. Initial capital $200 and then no more deposit, neither withdrawal. Performance was just so so except having caught a trend at the beginning (was just luck). Then stopped entirely and worked on a bot. First bot worked but low profit and wasn't designed to ride trends. Then started trading with 2nd bot this week. Now trading entirely with bot. So far I always start each trade with just 0.01 lot, don't wanna expose myself to too much risk. Not here to brag (although feel quite good indeed) but to ask for warnings and advices, because I am still quite new. Feel free to smash.
IMPORTANT: OVER 75% OF PEOPLE LOSE MONEY WITH CFD TRADING. IF YOU'RE A NOOB, DON'T EVEN THINK OF OPENING A CFD ACCOUNT. TRY MAKING CONSISTENT MONEY SWING TRADING ASX STONKS FIRST. THEN KEEP DOING THAT UNTIL YOU GET BORED AND WANT TO LOSE BIG MONEY VERY QUICKLY. ONLY THEN YOU MAY HAVE WHAT IT TAKES TO TRADE WITH LEVERAGE. You most likely don't have my discipline and pain tolerance. Or my feel for risk/reward math. On top of this you need markets to play nice and a bit of luck. I'm no wiz, but I know my strengths and weaknesses. I smell a good setup and prepare accordingly. Hope you all nail your big opportunity when it shows up. If not, that's okay too. You'll keep getting chances. Be patient. Focus on small wins. Plus there's far more important things in life than being loaded. ------ How I lost 5k trading CFDs then turned it around Back in April, I was playing with CFDs and nearly blew up my account. Started with $5k and dropped to almost zero because trading forex with leverage is a very stupid game. This is why IG gives you a demo account. But instead of using the demo account to learn how not to fuck up massively, I was using it to place giant YOLO shorts on US markets. By being a bit less retarded on the forex trades I clawed back some losses then topped up the account with another $2.5k before starting to open small positions in gold. From 3 to 10 contracts depending on how confident I felt. Then smelling a massive opportunity, I ramped up the leverage by going with much larger positions. Day 5 https://preview.redd.it/oqd955abwak51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=84aa309284c22117630899e39b8b1bfb89c670f3 Entering the silver trade It was only after making decent profits in gold that I dared venture into silver. I wanted to enter silver around $18 but missed the boat after waiting too long for a dip. $20 was still great. Tons of upside left. Silver is one nasty motherfucker to trade. It's a much smaller market than gold so the swings can be wild. Silver will play along nicely then suddenly fuck you really hard. If you use too much leverage you're basically waiting for your account to blow up. Stop losses will save you, but they can also kill your best trades. I didn't bother with stops for most of the ride because I'm an ASX_bets retard but also because I had ultra high conviction in the $25-27 price target. Started with 25 contracts. I very nearly missed out on this mini pump. Some might call it luck. Day 18 https://preview.redd.it/de8jozlexak51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=79d174c67a86754c7d9fd78aa594f88282c08834 Adding to my silver positions Increased my position size once I had a profit buffer to protect against sharp drops. It's WAY easier to blow up a CFD account than it appears. When trades are going well you feel like you can keep adding leverage and make millions. But even small swings will kill you if your positions are too big. Discipline is key. Buying 50 contracts in silver is not the same as 50 contracts in gold because silver moves are 2-4 times bigger. When gold moves 100 points, expect a 200-400 points move in silver. Having an equal mix of gold an silver contracts helped lower the overall volatility of my account. Anything over 10 contracts in silver is big. You can lose hundreds within minutes. Buy 50 contracts, the price drops $1 and you're $5000 in the hole. I knew when to push and when to hold back. This was EXTREMELY important. I did not get greedy. I was happy to let price moves do most of the lifting. Started the day with 3k profits. Went to bed that night with big beautiful bhags. 17k https://preview.redd.it/qcbeoxvnxak51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=4228593b9d86cc5f0460f44af06c7292ea644625 Day 19 Woke up the next morning with even bigger bhags. 30k https://preview.redd.it/9b439y5qxak51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=19e3ad27d7237bc88fdeb329ebcd113e11349554 Day 24 More pump. I added 50 silver contracts that day after a decent drop. Profits now up to around 41k. Held through the big swings... Like a proper bitch, Silver dropped another 5% soon after I added those 50 contracts and my 41k profit became 20k very suddenly. But no stop loss and I held firmly. What's a 21k drop when you've been down 35k on BBOZ before. Metals bounced back hard later that evening. Still not selling. High conviction made all the difference here. Five days later and I was up to 50k profit. At that point, I felt safe enough to add another 50 contracts. https://preview.redd.it/j2at0n95zck51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a0ea2fabe6a245807fb9ee8a8d0bc4ce854ba3a And it paid off BIG Both gold and silver keep pumping. Profit now 86k. Day 28 https://preview.redd.it/f3pz0an8zck51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ca765b6cad423786dee33a1366c70d324e39b8d Why sell now? Not selling yet. GV's silver target was $25-27 so I was confident holding through some wild swings. GV = Gold Ventures https://twitter.com/thelastdegree A turbo chad from Belgium who made a massive fortune trading options during 2008-2011 when silver went from $9 to $50 before crashing hard. GV is a certified wizard when it comes to timing the gold and silver cycles. Started with his wife's 32k savings and is now worth 18 million EUR or USD, I'm not sure and who cares. GV is pretty low key but commands plenty of respect from other metal traders on Twitter. Meanwhile GV was on holiday but still shitting money. https://preview.redd.it/ixsxwjx30dk51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fd5741634a7a5b0f913f5ea12edf05722f9fddf GV also has a junior miner portfolio worth several millions. I believe it's true. I went deep into his Twitter history. He was buying heavily into the March crash and some of his picks like AbraPlata have since made 10x. Junior miners are like call options on metal prices with no expiry date but you still need to pick winners and enteexit at the right time. Magical Six Figure Milestone Not long after... BOOM! Hit 100k in profit. When starting, I knew there was potentially 40k-50k to be made from this setup even without playing it perfectly. I would have been okay with 20k. Day 32 https://preview.redd.it/oy8sqsgz1dk51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8c628670578b81d72b9a41bd9d2307a27a2fbf7 Start taking profits Silver was still going strong but I felt it was time to de-risk. So I started taking profits on both gold and silver around that time. https://preview.redd.it/gvdqs67a2dk51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=64a77d3ccca86fe6e29eb43e0c2eaf096f68867c Okay I'm out The way silver kept pumping, I knew a big correction was imminent. By 12pm I was completely out with over 110k profit. Home and dry. I went on with my daily work routine, a bit more relaxed and not checking charts every 5 minutes. And then metals dumped hard. There was money to be made on the short side but there was also a strong possibility of shorts being squeezed. So I didn't bother. https://preview.redd.it/opoio79i2dk51.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=80187384d37e03eec8d01814248bbe4c5a48cc4f After the dump, I had no appetite to get back in with big positions. In hindsight I could have made tons more if I held to $29 but the ride from $24 to $29 is far more risky than $20 to $26. I'm quite okay with my 40x performance. Plus I needed to reset mentally after this rocket ride. More often than not, the best thing to do after a huge trading win is to take a break. Wisdom gained from the BBOZ days :) Withdrew my initial capital and 90% of the profits from IG. Left around 6k on the account to keep playing. https://preview.redd.it/1djdhz1m2dk51.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c028a06d4e0cf73bfb80f8ac48dd18e333b791d4 Feels good to have extra funds to invest with but I also need to set some aside for the monster tax bill next year. You're welcome Australia, and all the JobSeekeJobKeeper leeches. Hey everyone, check out my insane stats! That 85% win rate though...
Next steps after finishing Trading and Machine Learning specialization
Hello everyone, I just finished a specialization entailing using google AI platform and Big Query ML to develop trading strategies as well as RL agents, yet I’ve only been able to do this on historical data, I was hoping someone who’s already been through all this could advise me on the next steps. I’m looking to now go ahead and create automated trading systems based on the models and Reinforcement learning agents I have learned to develop. The books and courses I have taken have lead me up to what seems to be everything other than actually connecting to a live demo account to go ahead and create an automated system to now play out the models and such. I’ve been using Quandl and Open AI gym, not sure how I transition my agent from a Gym environment to live trading on a demo account because all the books and courses I have taken seem to purposely avoid this step. I’m really looking to use RL for forex trading but I don’t know how I would connect systems to a MT4 GUI, so I was just hoping someone might be able to point me in the right direction about how I should go about connecting an API to my AI platform notebooks to test my models live. Any direction would be greatly appreciated thanks everyone, I’m really looking forward to getting started in the industry; if I can figure this last thing out I don’t think it will be a problem haha, but stuck till then!
Good evening to anyone. Another newbie here going through Babypips, Lehman pdf, and several books recommended in the FAQ of the Forex Reddit. I am particularly happy about entering this amazing world, as i have always been very interested in both finance and economics. I would like to know if you would recommend any particular broker for a demo account/ for beginners? I would like to start "playing" a little bit with everything I have theoretically learned in the last weeks. Hope to keep you seeing all here. Luck and money to all!
Hi guys. I'm basically new to trading forex despite studying for 10 months, I feel like I'm a no good trader. Just a small background, I tried to trade on real account after 4 months with a trading plan I copied from a forex guru and I lost 25% of my $100 in 3 months (very small account just to test my psychology). I decided to study again with the help of babypips and started demo trading 2 months ago by constructing my own trading plan which is based on trend/range trading. My problem is, I feel like I'm super playing it safe in trading. I've only had 4-6 trades in a month and an average win rate of 83% having 100-150 pips gain. I am currently looking at H1 and H4 timeframes. Do you think having 4-6 trades a month is a very small frequency given that i look at H1/H4 charts? How often do you guys trade for those who look at H1/H4 charts? Is there any advice you can tell me which will improve my trading frequency? Thanks for taking the time to read and response on this post.
Hey Guys, New to Forex. I've been reading up for about a year, watching seminars, but I'm still having some trouble understanding the full basics. For example, if I think the USD is going to appreciate against the EUR am I buying USA/EUR or EUUSD? Also, where is the best way to find how information is impacting the market. For example, if I wanted to make a play in AUS/JPY where would I find the best reports on them and what they mean? Any other tips would help. I'm about to open a demo account to start practicing, I hope to start real money in about a year.
I’m a new starter in the forex world and still playing with demo account. I know there are many analytical techniques around but what I found particularly interesting was the success rate of these methods. Based on your own knowledge and experience, would you say EMA-RSI combo yields more accurate results or Bollinger-RSI or a combination of 3?
Dont have a job, but parents give me some money every month. Thinking of saving it and investing them into currency. Already have some money invested into stocks. Want to earn some quick money from forex. Worth the risk?
Forex has popped up on my radar on/off over the years but I did minimal research on it. I do keep up with economics and feel that I understand the whys/whens/hows on when things happen... I just never looked into Forex. Recently Forex has popped up on my radar again... I have a few friends in Japan and a few more here in the states that trade. I've started researching, consuming as much information, studying chart-to-news-comparisons/trends/strategies/etc. I've started the Babypips course. I've also been playing with a demo account. I've seen horror stories of people jumping in thinking it's a get-rich thing. Even with little research on it, it's easy and obvious to realize you can't make money overnight. Just from 2 weeks of diving in, I'm not even thinking about the make money side of it. The way the currency markets move fascinates me. It seems crazy to me that people put their money in without at least 6 months of research and practicing on a demo account. In the future when I do put money in... do people not know about risk management? Risk management is screamed from the rooftops in this community/industry. Of course, you aren't going to win every trade... so don't put half to all of your account toward one trade. I keep seeing/hearing the word mentor come up. Seems weird to me. Even one of my trader friends has a mentor. The other doesn't. Why would anyone trust any of these flashy IG/YT people? I'm sure some of them are fine but it already seems like there are a ton of things you need to learn on your own if you're interested in getting involved in these markets.
I have been waiting on robinhood to come to Australia, and I doubt they will ever get here. I am looking for an options trading app for Australia. I am already using Stake for US and Selfwealth for ASX. Was put onto HighLow yesterday but cant play until markets open, and looks more just for forex. Update: HighLow refused my ID for some reason, but I used the demo and it is not what I wanted. I am looking for Call and Put Options on stocks.
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How to open a Forex demo account with Admiral Markets ...
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